Southeast Asia: Bold
ambitions hobbled by petty rivalries By Philip Bowring (IHT) Tuesday, October 14, 2003
By rights, most countries in the region should be feeling self-assured.
Economies are flourishing and neither North Korea nor sporadic Islamic
terror are imminent threats to stability. Yet insecurity and xenophobia
lurk close to the surface. They may prevent the region from playing the
bigger role in global economic affairs that could benefit itself as well
as the world.
Such progress as had been made toward freer Asean trade has mostly been
driven by the private sector. Governments - Thailand and Singapore
excepted - continue to protect favored industries from regional
competition. Central bankers are cooperating to fight the "last war," the
Asian crisis, rather than jointly address today's issue - their bloated
trade surpluses, lack of regional cooperation on exchange rates and the
very real dangers of a trade war with their Western customers.
Rivalry has led to a reluctance to accept that currency realignment is
the logical result of economic success. Instead realignment is presented
as a threat or viewed in beggar-my-neighbor terms. Ever-mercantilist South
Korea is doing its level best to gain advantage over Japan by preventing
its currency from rising as fast as the yen, even though its trade
position is stronger than Japan's. Ditto Taiwan which, together with
Malaysia, has Asia's largest trade surplus in percentage terms.
One exception to this picture is Thailand. Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra now accepts a stronger currency as the natural outcome of
economic recovery and a large external surplus. The Thai baht has been
allowed to rise 10 percent against the dollar this year, or about the same
as the yen. But Thailand has had scant success in persuading its neighbors
to think likewise. As a result it will face more competition from the
likes of China and Malaysia.
The Thais argue that Asia's best hope for continuing rapid trade growth
lies with intraregional trade, which would benefit from realistic exchange
rates and an informal understanding to keep Asian currencies in stable
relationships with each other and to avoid currency-based competition.
This is an issue that goes beyond currencies to attitudes. Thailand has
taken the rough with the smooth in being open to the outside world despite
the ravages of 1997. But despite big social changes since the Asian
crisis, South Korea often seems stuck in an overtly nationalist mind-set.
The LG Group is currently using blatantly xenophobic language to try to
prevent foreigners from acquiring control of a South Korean telecom
company. This is the very same LG which purports to be a global citizen,
selling its products in all corners of the world.
Asia will hardly be able to continue to develop cross-border trade and
investment to compensate for slow growth in the West if companies and
nations follow South Korean examples of conduct.
China, meanwhile, continues to indulge in bouts of anti-Japanese fervor
that spill over into trade. Japan is likely to lose a major railway
contract as reprisal for accidental deaths caused by Japanese munitions
left from 1945. China's news media have been in a frenzy of denunciation
of the Japanese on account of an orgy alleged to have been laid on for
Japanese tourists in Shenzhen. The xenophobes conveniently forget that sex
tourism is routine in southern China. Most customers are Chinese.
The upcoming Bangkok meeting of APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation forum, could be an occasion for East Asians to decide on a
joint approach to their trade and financial imbalances and address the
legitimate concerns of the International Monetary Fund and their Western
trade partners. But don't bet on anything that requires bold actions, a
degree of unselfishness, or an understanding of the precarious state of
world economic cooperation. Just get ready for more empty
rhetoric. |
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