DHAKA,
Bangladesh Bangladesh is a paradox. It lacks natural
resources and good governance and is beset by natural calamities,
corruption and self-destructive political infighting. Yet its gross
national product persistently maintains a growth rate of 5 percent,
well above average for developing countries, it has overtaken India
on several social indicators Its aid dependence has fallen from 6
percent to 1.8 percent of gross domestic product.
The answer to the puzzle
seems to lie in the triumph of individual and local group initiative
over both the elements and institutional failings. The frustration
for many Bangladeshis is that their nation could be doing so much
better. Bangladesh's attractions for foreign investors - low labor
costs and stable fiscal and macro-economic policies - are countered
by politically motivated strikes that paralyze the urban economy,
vested trade union interests that choke its main port, inefficient
textile business interests that impede its dynamic garment industry,
and corrupt politicians and officials who hold up infrastructure
development.
As it is, over the past
year the nation has weathered two crises. Last summer, the worst
floods in decades put more than half the country under water. But no
one died, relief was effective, farmers adjusted and the economy
still grew at nearly 5 percent. And this year, according to many a
foreign forecast, Bangladesh's garment industry, which employs
hundreds of thousands, was supposed to have been devastated by the
end of textile quotas and China's export juggernaut. It is too early
to make a final judgment, but so far at least the local industry
appears to have maintained its share of the global market, albeit
with lower profits.
Of course this is still
a desperately poor, overpopulated country, where 50 percent of
children are underweight. But India is no better on that score;
Bangladesh has made much more progress than its neighbors over the
past 10 years, becoming self-sufficient in food. There are doubts
about how much longer the farmers can continue to get additional
output from their tiny plots of land of 3 percent a year. But do not
be surprised if they do.
Social progress has been
even more marked. Educational standards may be poor, but primary
school enrollment is on a par with India, and completions even
higher. Gender equality in education is even more striking: There
are now more girls than boys at secondary level. Gender equality
also seems reflected in the fall in the fertility rate, which has
halved from 6.0 to 3.0 in two decades - the steepest fall almost
anywhere other than China. It is now below India's and far below
Pakistan's.
The lower birth rate is
linked to a steep fall in child mortality, and to the enhanced
economic role of women as small-scale village entrepreneurs and as
garment workers. The conservative religious reaction to the advance
of women seems unlikely to succeed in the face of educational and
employment progress.
Economic advance has
been underpinned by the individual initiative of hundreds of
thousands of Bangladeshis working overseas. Their remittances exceed
the net earnings of the garment industry, amounting to more than
$3.5 billion a year, mostly from Britain, the United States and the
Middle East. The military earns another $2 billion from UN
peacekeeping missions. Bangladesh is likely to remain an exporter of
people for years to come.
But further economic
progress - including effective use of the billions earned overseas -
now requires more effective governance and a freer rein for the
private sector. The economy has become much more integrated with the
world over the past decade but needs to move further to attract
investment and exploit its only abundant resource - labor.
The issue now is whether
Bangladesh can combine social progress with a higher level of
economic growth while combating the problems of rapid urbanization
and pollution in an already overcrowded land. India and Sri Lanka
both suggest that in South Asia, social and economic progress do not
always go hand in hand. Will Bangladesh continue as a paradox, or
can it combine enterprise and a homogenous population to overcome
natural adversity and set its sights on a standard of living akin to
its neighbors in Southeast Asia?