China worries Washington
 
Philip Bowring IHT
Tuesday, July 16, 2002
The threat to Taiwan
 
HONG KONG Two Washington studies demonstrate greatly heightened U.S. awareness of China's power, and in particular its ability to threaten Taiwan. They are mostly correct in their observations, but dealing with the situation is another matter.
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Although the United States is by far the most powerful nation on earth, it is not omnipotent, so the studies may suggest a need for it to think much harder about its priorities. The post-Sept. 11 focus on Al Qaeda, the Middle East and homeland defense has made it harder to deal effectively with the longer-term issues raised by China. A Pentagon review of China's goals and military capability notes the very rapid buildup of offensive capability toward Taiwan, with purchases of advanced Russian submarines, destroyers and aircraft adding to a sustained increase in the homegrown missile arsenal. It may leave China well short of being able to launch an invasion, but it clearly increases the threat of blockade, and the damage that China could do to U.S. naval forces if they intervened.
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Beijing is attaching increasing importance to Taiwan, an issue of minimal concern to Mao and secondary for Deng Xiaoping. This can seem unnecessary except in terms of mainland domestic politics. Both sides are seeking to build even closer economic ties, and the threat of a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan is now remote. The buildup implies that there is a bigger goal than pressuring the island.
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For China, the reunification issue is no longer just a matter of national pride or a tool in domestic power struggles. It is a statement to the United States and Japan (and by implication to Southeast Asia) of China's goal of expanding its defense perimeter to lands and seas which it claims but which are currently controlled by others. Further U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and pressing ahead with theater missile defense would help maintain the current balance, although Taiwan's willingness to pay ever greater sums for high-tech weapons may be questioned. But what else can the United States do to counter what a report by the congressional U.S.-China Security Review Commission sees as "an increasing threat to U.S. security interests"? Leaning on the Russians to reduce arms sales to China (and Iran) is unlikely to help. The Russians need the business and consider that they have been accommodating enough to the West over NATO expansion and Central Asia. With its own long-term worries about China, Russia may feel that a degree of Chinese dependence on Russian military technology is advantageous.
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The commission suggests increased use of sanctions against countries responsible for proliferation of strategic weapons. But that would amount to a veto over China and Russia's relations with several important countries. Is that really viable? The commission also suggests closing U.S. capital markets to offending countries and companies. But that threat also sounds hollow, given America's need for capital and the ease with which China can raise money offshore, in Asia as well as Europe. Despite U.S. sanctions, even "evil" Iran has recently found that its bonds have a ready market in Europe, at yields a fraction of those on Brazilian equivalents.
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The United States is currently prone to overstate its power in the world. But equally it may be in danger of overstating China's power. The commission worries about China's shift to advanced technology exports. But almost all of these are from foreign-invested factories using foreign technology - much of it from Taiwan and Japan.
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For sure, China is trying to build its own technological base to enhance military as well as economic power. Foreign companies, including American ones, may often be careless of their intellectual property.
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But the bottom line of China's integration into the world economy has always been the increase of its power and influence. The issue for America now is not to try to reverse the trend but to refine its definitions of its own interests.
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It should avoid sacrificing long-term interests in the western Pacific for transient ones in the Middle East and Central Asia, and maximize the strategic impact of its military technology rather than exhaust itself with too many goals across all continents.
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International Herald Tribune
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