Arroyo, on a roll, may decide to run again after all
 
Philip Bowring IHT
Tuesday, June 3, 2003
The Philippines
 
MANILA Will she or won't she run again? With the May 2004 presidential election less than a year away, the key question is whether President Gloria Arroyo of the Philippines will reverse her December 2002 announcement that she would not be a candidate.
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Her dilemma encapsulates that of the nation. Her presidency has not fulfilled the hopes of many of those who supported the constitutionally dubious overthrow of President Joseph Estrada, a former movie star widely seen as corrupt and incompetent. Yet the list of 2004 presidential hopefuls makes depressing reading for those seeking lasting improvement in the way the Philippines is governed.
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That dilemma has been underscored by two recent events. Arroyo's prestige was lifted dramatically by the regal treatment she received during her state visit to the United States. The visit, the arms and money from a grateful United States, plus an offensive against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a Muslim group fighting for independence on the southern island of Mindanao, have lifted Arroyo's public standing. As a result, there is now feverish speculation about her future intentions and calls for her to run.
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But there has also been an uncomfortable reminder of how little the Philippines has progressed, from a usually very discreet Japanese ambassador. He lashed out at the abysmal law and order situation in the whole country, which he said was deterring tourism and giving business executives sleepless nights. He charged the government with making changes in investment policies that "trapped" Japanese investors, and said huge amounts of Japanese aid lay unused because of poor local funding or project implementation.
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While the government has dismissed the ambassador's statements, they have been supported by the Filipino-Chinese business community. They also reflect the opinions of a recent Asian Development Bank report and the unhappy experience of the largest German investor in the Philippines, which has just written off a $300 million airport investment.
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While Manila's economic policies are sound in principle, their implementation has improved only marginally under Arroyo. When she said that she would not run in 2004 she undertook to use her last 18 months in office to avoid politicking and concentrate on action. But in practice she looks very much the candidate, appearing in telegenic situations and backing off from confrontations with powerful groups.
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Promises of a vigorous policy to reduce the nation's high birth rate fizzled in the face of opposition from the Catholic Church. The get-tough policy in Mindanao seems more geared to the electorate and to military influence than to long-term strategy. The economy, meanwhile, is doing well enough despite the government, thanks mainly to ever-rising remittances from Filipinos overseas.
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Arroyo could succeed herself by default. She is known to be malleable and prone to changes of mind. Her own party, Lakas, has no obvious alternative candidate. Nor does the business elite seem able to coalesce around anyone else. The front-runner in the opinion polls is Raul Roco, a competent lawyer with an interest in social issues but lacking a party base and regarded with suspicion by the business community.
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There are suggestions that the nation now hankers after a "strong leader," like Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra of Thailand - if not a new Marcos. Two prominent contenders are Senator Panfilo (Ping) Lacson, police chief under Estrada, and Eduardo (Danding) Cojuangco, head of San Miguel, the nation's largest company. But Lacson acquired an unsavory human rights reputation and Cojuangco was a major beneficiary of Marcos cronyism.
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Then there are celebrities such as Senators Noli de Castro and Loren Legarda, both former television personalities, and Senator Ramon Magsaysay Jr., whose father was president in the 1950s.
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Some hope that a respected figure such as Chief Justice Hilario Davide will emerge as an alternative. But the chances are that name recognition and money will be the deciding factors.
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If the opposition unites behind one candidate, Arroyo would have a tough fight. But if there are several candidates and she has backing from elite groups, Arroyo's chances of success in 2004 look much stronger now than they were in December. Elected in her own right, with a single six-year term to serve, she might even get a grip on government.

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