In Hong Kong, the message is the victory
 
Philip Bowring IHT
Friday, September 10, 2004
HONG KONG The biggest vote winners - pro-democracy forces - in Hong Kong's Legislative Council elections on Sunday are destined to lose. Even if they fall far short of their expectations, the democrats will lead the popular vote. But only half the 60 seats are directly elected by full suffrage, the rest being decided by small numbers of mostly pro-government voters in so-called "functional constituencies."
.
Another reason is that the better the democrats do, the more determined the government and its masters in Beijing may be to thwart, by fair means or foul, the popular will. Confronted by the persistence of pro-democracy sentiment, as evidenced by rallies and opinion polls, Beijing has been showing the true colors of its one-party authoritarian system.
.
It is less and less interested in the "One Country Two Systems" formula. It no longer needs Hong Kong as major conduit for foreign investment, and it realizes that the formula is not attractive to Taiwan. A hard line on Hong Kong is also favored by former President Jiang Zemin, and is an issue between him and his successor.
.
The fair means have included government publication of some rosy-looking economic figures and a visit by Chinese Olympic medal winners to Hong Kong aimed to associate the local administration with ethnic pride.
.
Foul means are already in evidence in the run-up to the polls, with pro-Beijing forces and their media outlets smearing the democrats with assorted allegations of sexual shenanigans, misuse of funds, CIA financing and lack of patriotism. The sexual and financial careers of some progovernment candidates are murkier, but the resources of the state have not been put to exposing them.
.
Smear tactics were not unexpected. But they are an illustration of how Hong Kong is being absorbed, drip by drip, into the mainland system. Likewise, the growing relationship between favored business groups and the administration is economically damaging but politically advantageous to the government, as well as being in line with mainland practices.
.
For now, the smear tactics are seen as likely to reduce voter turnout. So too may be a complex system of allocating seats in multimember constituencies, a system which few people understand but which will ensure that pro-government candidates will pick up plenty of seats.
.
There is also a not-unjustified sense that the majority cannot win, and that anyway the Legislative Council has become increasingly marginalized since 1997 as the executive-led government has sought to bypass it wherever possible.
.
Although the main pro-Beijing party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, purports to believe in full direct elections in the future, its leading lights have a long history of subservience to the party line, dating back to the Cultural Revolution. It has a more recent record of serving certain business interests at the expense of the masses it purports to represent.
.
Meanwhile, the democratic camp is vulnerable to the accusation that its policies on issues other than the Constitution and autonomy from Beijing are either imprecise or aimed more at above-average earners in a society with huge income differentials. It also suffers from divisions.
.
The political reality is that no less than 11 of the 60 seats in the legislature are uncontested, the result pre-cooked by tiny electorates. In some, the electors are corporate bodies which choose members who contribute little to the debate but vote with the government.
.
Only 5 percent of the voters are qualified to vote in the 30 "functional" constituencies, and most of these are concentrated in a few professions - teachers, health personnel - with records of returning prodemocracy candidates.
.
This squalid system is a legacy of the colonial era. But ever since the signing of the Chinese-British Joint Declaration 20 years ago, Beijing has been the main barrier to democratization. Since 1997 it has enjoyed the unstinting support of a small business elite around the bumbling chief executiv,Tung Chee-hwa, whom it keeps in power for its own purposes.
.
Still, this election has an important symbolic role, pitting advocates of democracy and autonomy against those who put Chinese patriotism and the merits of rapid integration with the mainland before Hong Kong identity and internationalism.
.
There is a long way to travel to good governance as well as to democracy. But this quasi-election might just be a small step.



  E-mail This Article Print Article Text Larger Text Small Single Column Multi Column