Philip Bowring: When
the Malays cast their votes In East Asia By Philip Bowring (IHT) Tuesday, July 13, 2004
This year more Malays have participated in reasonably free and fair
national elections than will vote in the U.S. presidential election in
November. Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia have all engaged in
mostly peaceful exercises in political choice, with more than 70 percent
casting their ballots. Of the four predominantly Malay nations, with a
combined population of some 300 million, only the tiny oil rich sultanate
of Brunei cannot pass as a democracy. Is this a happy coincidence or a
cultural statement with political and ethnic implications for the region?
Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia are usually thought of in terms
of either their religious differences - Muslim, Christian or a mix - or
the different governance systems that have grown out of foreign rule -
British, American, Dutch.
But there is a shared common cultural heritage which predates the
arrival of the West, of Christianity and of Islam. It is found in many
social attitudes and behavioral norms and often transcends religious and
national differences. For instance the higher status of women compared to
Chinese societies is reflected in the lack of a bias for male births.
There is also the basis of a shared language - before English, Malay
was the lingua franca of Southeast Asia.
Is there here the germ of a pan-Malay political agenda?
The Indonesian presidential election coincided with the death of
Subandrio, 90, President Sukarno's foreign minister and key player in the
1961 creation of the Nonaligned Movement. Subandrio was also the 1963
inventor of the word "Maphilindo," shorthand for a pan-Malay
confederation, an idea initiated by President Macapagal, father of the
current Philippine president.
The motive was to thwart the attachment of the British Borneo states to
Malaya. But there was a genuine pan-Malay sentiment behind it, and a
sub-text in a fear of China. Maphilindo became irrelevant when the Malay
nations joined with their fellow anti-Communist neighbors, Thailand and
Singapore, to create the Association of South East Asia Nations (Asean).
Fast forward 40 years and at first glance Maphilindo looks more remote
than ever. Asean has expanded to include all of mainland Southeast Asia
and has created a free trade area of sorts. China is now outwardly
friendly, a source of trade growth and investment opportunity.
But Asean may have become too big to be meaningful. Thailand and
Singapore are going their own ways with bilateral free trade deals.
Asean-China free trade looks more rhetoric than reality. Meanwhile there
is long-term concern as well as short-term advantage in China's growth.
China's ambitions to control the South China Sea remains very much on the
table to the discomfort to the Malays who occupy most of its coastline.
Only this month China announced an award of oil exploration blocks to its
national oil company Petrochina but kept the location under wraps.
Translating a shared culture and geopolitical concerns into common
policy is hard. The Malay lands of island and peninsular Southeast Asia
have scant record of political cohesion. Historically, states have been
transient. In contrast to the Chinese world, they have no tradition of
strong bureaucracies holding states together and imposing a state
ideology. But their traditions of patron-client relationships, of
relatively high levels of religious and behavioral tolerance, their
instincts of loyalty to individuals rather than institutions or ideologies
may accord quite well with the modernity of the ballot box.
Possibly, populism and nationalism will be in the defining marks of
Malay democracy rather than economic growth and law-based governance.
Systems might be far from ideal from the perspectives of the economy and
good order but allow cultural freedoms to flourish. Unlike China, Malaysia
and Indonesia have cushions of natural resources and no costly big power
ambitions.
Longer term they also have one particular advantage over their giant
northern neighbor. The Philippines has excessive population growth but
Indonesia and Malaysia have achieved gradual, undraconian, demographic
transition which 30 years from now will show up China's mix of one child
policy and male preference. Perhaps China's southward expansion will be
reversed just as demography has led Russia's retreat from Asia.
The Malay enthusiasm for voting may prove transient. Possibly, China
will follow its Northeast Asian neighbors in escaping from rule by one
party and a state bureaucracy. But that is not now. There will be
consequences from the ubiquity of the Malay ballot box at a time when
pan-Malay identity is stirring as China rises and old colonial-imposed
divisions erode. What those consequences will be is anyone's guess. But
they are worth contemplating. |
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