Sisters in Power ......II... IHT August 1
Indonesia's new leader could do worse than keep an eye on the progress and problems of her neighbor Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The two daughters of former presidents came to power in roughly similar circumstances. Both need to prove that they are not beholden to the military and the metropolitan elites which toppled their predecessors. Both need to show that they can make good governance the centerpiece of national revival, promote reform without driving away tainted but needed capital.
Mrs. Arroyo came to power in constitutionally more dubious circumstances than Megawati Sukarnoputri. She also faced the wrath of a large minority of the population, notably of the poor, who resented the treatment of Mr. Estrada and had little faith that this daughter of the elite would do more than pay lip service to their needs. So far she has shown a better understanding of the real issues facing the country than has been recognized by the Makati financial and commercial sector, which wields inordinate influence over a largely rural and pre-industrial economy heavily dependent on remittances from émigrés. But Makati determines the level of the peso and stock market, and those are the yardsticks by which the country is usually measured. The peso is almost back to its Estrada crisis low against the dollar despite central banks' efforts to squeeze speculators and limit dollar access. Stocks have fallen 20 percent since the euphoria which followed Mr. Estrada's ouster last January. The plus side of the Arroyo ledger is rather longer than these numbers suggest. Congressional elections in May gave her control of the House and a comfortable if not overwhelming position in the Senate. Even the May 1 riots, which led to declaration of a state of rebellion and use of the army to keep order, may have had positive results. The riots were blamed on troublemaking paid for by Estrada supporters. But it is now recognized that the frustrations of the urban poor were an important factor. The Philippines has a history of peasants' revolt but hitherto not of urban unrest. Manila's sansculottes could erupt again. Mrs. Arroyo has had the sense to take note. The government's limited resources are to be focused on a stagnant agricultural sector that is disgorging its unemployed to the towns, and on improving housing and amenities for the urban poor. The president has made efforts to address grassroots issues and to listen to the social activist as well as business members of the People Power II coalition. Her work schedule is demanding, and by setting targets she has given the impression that she can shake the bureaucracy out of its indolence. She may not succeed, but the harder she is seen to try the more likely she will succeed in her ambition to be re-elected in 2004. The military has been kept happy by an increased budget, and kept busy dealing with the Abu Sayyaf. That band of extortionists remains a problem, but Mrs. Arroyo has made progress in peace talks with the more important Moro Islamic Liberation Front. Corruption is being addressed more vigorously than most expected. Some police chiefs linked to the illegal gambling syndicates which financed Mr. Estrada and other politicians are being dismissed. The new head of the Bureau of Internal Revenue is engaged in a fierce battle to clean up an institution which for years has been a major cause of the country's fiscal problems and consequent abysmal public infrastructure. She has even submitted her own husband, José Miguel Arroyo, to investigation. The nexus of smuggling and illegal gambling, police corruption and political funding is so entrenched, the links between government and business are so numerous, the fiscal situation is so difficult that Mrs. Arroyo may well fail to deliver. Elite money continues to leave the country because of fear of social instability. Filipino Chinese fret at continued insecurity and kidnappings for ransom, and some see better investment opportunities in China. The security situation in Muslim areas is no worse now than during most of the past 25 years, but the gangsters have stolen the headlines away from a president who has gained stature through hard work and determination not to be seen as anyone's puppet. Mrs. Megawati would do well to copy. Can the two women co-opt the forces of reform while keeping the military on the sidelines, business interests supportive and traditional money politics at arm's length? It is a tall order
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