False Alarms: Asia
will survive Beijing's belt-tightening By Philip Bowring (IHT) Friday, May 7, 2004
Beijing's belated economic belt-tightening, some high profile
economists proclaim, threatens economies throughout Asia, perhaps even
sowing the seeds of another Asian crisis. Export growth, especially of
commodities, will implode, they say, causing rising unemployment and even
balance of payments crises. Political pundits who would never dare venture
an opinion on the U.S. banking system warn of the global threat posed by
China's banks.
It would pay to remember, however, that some of the same pontificators
could be heard not long ago expounding on the threat to the rest of Asia
of China's advances.
For sure, over the past year exports to China, rising 35 percent for
countries like South Korea, have been the biggest single factor in export
growth and, in some cases, of overall growth in gross domestic product.
That is obviously not going to continue. Commodity prices are off the boil
and the reining in of China's investment excesses will eventually put a
lid on purchases of capital equipment.
But so what? The rise of Chinese demand has simply diversified the
markets of its Asian neighbors, who were once overly dependent on the
United States and Japan. Here are a few relevant facts:
China's growth may well slow from around 9 percent to 6 percent or
less. But that is still healthy enough for most of its trading partners.
China's problem is excess investment - now 40 percent of GDP - rather than
aggregate demand. Investment cutbacks will hurt some industries, but there
is plenty of scope for consumption to grow faster. The authorities'
problem is how to bolster consumption while dampening investment.
Consumption will drive imports even as capital goods purchases ease off.
Japan and the European Union remain bigger influences on the global and
regional economy than China. The rest of Asia emerged from its crisis with
scant help from Japan, which was then in the doldrums. The chances are
good that the Japanese economy now has some self-sustaining momentum and
that domestic demand recovery will survive a slower China.
Asian countries, as well as China, have been continuing to gain global
market share, especially in fast-growing information technology and
communications industries. This trend seems likely to continue as the
region advances in technology and productivity. Global demand, rather than
China-specific demand, is the key factor.
Huge trade surpluses and excessive levels of foreign exchange reserves
will enable Asian countries to keep interest rates low as those elsewhere
rise. Asia, unlike the United States and Britain, has real savings, not
the faux-savings generated by house price increases spurred by cheap
money.
Asset price reflation in Asia has been taking place under the stimulus
of easy global money conditions. But it is mild compared with the West's.
With a few Japanese and Chinese exceptions, Asian assets remain cheap by
U.S. and EU standards despite superior economic growth and demographic
credentials.
Currency appreciation could also offset the return of inflation caused
by commodity price increases. With large savings excesses, most of Asia
can afford to stimulate consumption if investment, other than in China,
fails to rise.
Despite the SARS and security scares last year, tourism is booming
throughout Asia and will be sustained by more liberal Chinese exit
policies and the arrival of low-cost airlines.
High prices for oil, palm oil, rubber and copper are helping Southeast
Asian economies - Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand - more than they are
hurting commodity importers like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
China's demand has been a major factor in the surge in commodity
prices. There may have been some stockpiling and speculation as a result.
But China's overall commodity demand will continue to grow. Meanwhile it
will take years, not months, to make up for a decade of underinvestment in
mines, oil wells and forests.
China's banking system is to blame for vast misallocation of resources.
But state-owned banks do not go bust, however bad their management. The
negative effects will be long-term lower growth, higher state debts and
increased income imbalances. But the major banks will not be put at risk
as a result of premature privatization in the foreseeable future.
For sure, times are going to get tougher everywhere as the U.S.-led
global money printing rampage winds down, but China's Asian neighbors will
be the least of the world's
problems. |
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