HONG
KONG The result of Taiwan's election on Saturday has put
into perspective the cross-strait hype and hoopla of the previous
two weeks. The opposition leaders Lien Chan and James Soong had been
feted on the mainland, and visions of imminent cross-strait
rapprochement were conjured up, not least by Beijing-based foreign
news media.
Despite the excitement
and media attention at home and abroad, Taiwanese in the end seem
largely unmoved. The polls for the National Assembly showed no
significant discernible shift in the political balance within Taiwan
itself. If anything, the visits may have increased adherence to the
extremes of pro-and anti-unification forces, and reduced the middle
ground occupied by a majority of Taiwanese.
Admittedly, the polling
significance of the election was reduced by the low turnout. The two
major parties are agreed on the main job of the National Assembly -
to change the Constitution and voting system and vote for its own
abolition, leaving power with the Legislative Assembly and the
directly elected president. Bad weather also influenced the turnout.
Nonetheless the result
must be judged as the first formal reaction by voters to the Lien
and Soong visits. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of
President Chen Shui-bian performed rather better than had been
expected, with 42.5 percent of the vote. Add in the 7 percent of the
fiercely pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union and the forces
most skeptical of Beijing appeared in a small majority. Against
that, Lien's Kuomintang mustered 38.9 percent and Soong's People
First Party a mere 6.1 percent. Assorted independents got 5.4
percent.
Though the People First
Party may also have suffered from its opposition to constitutional
changes that will work against small parties, Soong's poor showing
could be seen as especially significant. The mainland-born populist
and longtime presidential aspirant had just returned from a meeting
with President Hu Jintao of China. The two claimed to have brokered
a new deal using the catchphrase "Two Sides, One China," with an
agenda for direct transport links and a free-trade deal between the
two sides of the Taiwan Strait. They backed a return to the
so-called 1992 consensus on acceptance of the One China principle,
the interpretation of which is more important than the phrase
itself. Chen was quick to reject this so-called "breakthrough."
On his visit to the
mainland, Soong had been more effusive than Lien in emphasizing the
ethnic brotherhood across the strait. This may also have reminded
voters that most of them are descended from people who migrated
(illegally) from the mainland generations ago and did not retain the
same ties as those who arrived when the Kuomintang was defeated on
the mainland in 1949.
The strong DPP showing
also came in the face of widespread opinion that President Chen had
badly mishandled the Lien and Soong visits, flip-flopping between
lukewarm endorsements of their intent to ease cross-strait tensions
and criticism of their pronouncements on the mainland. Chen had
himself used Soong to send a private message to Hu.
Chen's ambivalence
reflected the difficulty any Taiwan president has in maintaining the
middle ground of politics while not alienating his core support.
Although Chen was much criticized by pro-independence groups within
the DPP, the election suggests that core support for the party did
not erode. On the other hand, Lien and Soong may have to note that
playing to the mainland and international galleries is not a big
vote winner at home. However much a majority favors trade, peace and
the status quo, the concept of Taiwanese identity (not necessarily
synonymous with independence) runs as strongly through local veins
as their mainland birth runs through those of Lien and Soong.