Philip Bowring:
Religion takes a back seat in Southeast Asia Malaysia and Indonesia By Philip Bowring (IHT) Friday, March 26, 2004
The rout in Malaysia last Sunday of the Parti Islam, or PAS, has been
widely taken as a rejection of fundamentalists pushing for a closer
linkage between the state and religious practices. That is only partly
true.
The result reflects a post-Sept. 11, post-Bali unease with
fundamentalism, even though in Malaysia there have never been convincing
links between PAS and terrorism. There is a sense that PAS policies are
not in keeping with Malay traditions of tolerance.
More important in the swing against PAS, however, was not religion but
a pick-up in the rural economy and, above all, the retirement of Prime
Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad. He was widely disliked by Malays, primarily
for his treatment of his imprisoned former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, and for
his association with money politics. This election was thus a reversion to
the status quo ante rather than a knock-out blow to PAS.
PAS is not just a reflection of fundamentalism. The battle for
Malaysian votes is as much about championing Malay racial identity as
about the role of religion in society. The party, founded in 1951, was in
power in its stronghold, Kelantan State, long before more radical Islam
spread to the region after the Iranian revolution. It retains a
conservative traditionalist base with a topping of more radical views.
The arithmetic of Malaysian politics, once Chinese and Indians are
counted, ensures that PAS will forever remain a minority party except in
Kelantan and at best two other states.
That said, the role of Islam in the politics of Malaysia, whose
population is 60 percent Muslim, is much greater than in Indonesia, where
90 percent of the population is Muslim. Indonesia is in the early days of
a six-month contest. Legislative elections on April 5 will help determine
the lineup for the first round of the presidential election in July and a
September runoff between the top two candidates.
The most striking aspect of the Indonesian contest is that religion -
or indeed ideology of any sort - is largely absent. This is a battle of
personalities and interest groups, which offers a bewildering number of
possible alliances. Religious organizations matter only to the extent that
they can, if they choose, help to deliver votes.
The main interest in the legislative election centers around the battle
between the two largest parties, the nationalist, supposedly reformist
PDI-P of President Megawati Sukarnoputri, and Golkar, mainly representing
conservative and Suharto-era interests. The five main Muslim parties are
likely to see their combined share of the vote fall to about 35 percent.
Golkar has money, a reputation for competent government and a slew of
presidential aspirants. None is outstandingly electable, but a strong
Golkar showing in April could, with the right allies, be a threat to
Megawati. If Golkar does less well than PDI-P in April it may ally with
Megawati, settling for the vice-presidency and a hefty share of cabinet
posts. Megawati, meanwhile, is courting some Muslim parties.
In origin all the Muslim parties are political reflections of varying
interpretations of Islam, from the very relaxed to the moderately austere.
But personalities and power, rather than religious issues, dominate their
political discourse. Commitments to a larger role for Islam are vague.
The one serious identifiably Muslim candidate for the presidency, Amien
Rais, has had to play down Islam and play up reformist credentials in
order to broaden his appeal. Meanwhile personal and historic rivalries
make it difficult for him to form a coalition of Muslim parties.
Rais may be less of a danger to Megawati than Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,
who recently quit as coordinating minister for political and security
affairs. Though many view him as indecisive, he has enough credibility as
honest and competent to carve out much middle ground; Megawati's
vulnerability is not her secular nationalism but her competence.
It is no longer possible to divide parties into pro- or anti-reform.
Discussion is about future alliances for the presidential campaign that
cross old divides. Megawati is at heart as conservative as she is secular
and nationalist. Reformers, crony capitalists, religionists, technocrats
and military men cross party lines.
The presidential lineup will be a matter of intense horse-trading after
April 5. This will continue until the runoff. The only certainties are
that Megawati is running and that the main Muslim parties are more
interested in a share of power than in issues of faith or morals. The same
political pack will be reshuffled. That is good for stability and bad for
progress but is the nature of democracy in a country that holds together
by not wearing Islam on its sleeve. |
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